Reserves of financial stability of investment project in scenario method

Vasilyev Alexander
candidate of physical and mathematical sciences, associate professor of the department of optimal management and economic cybernetics of Odessa National University. І.І. Mechnikova, e-mail:liberty84@rambler.ru

Vasilyeva Nataliya
candidate of physical and mathematical sciences, associate professor, associate professor of the Department of Higher Mathematics, Odessa State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture, e-mail:liberty84@rambler.ru

Tupko Nataliya
candidate of physical and mathematical sciences, associate professor, associate professor of the department of higher and computer mathematics, National Aviation University (Kiev), e-mail:natupko@rambler.ru

Cite this article:

Vasilyev, А., Vasilyeva, N., Tupko, N. (2016). Reserves of financial stability of investment project in scenario method. Ed.: М.D. Baldzhy (ed.-in-ch.) and others [Systema pensiinoho zabezpechennia Ukrainy ta yevrointehratsiini protsesy; za red.: М. D. Baldzhy (gol. red.)], Scientific Bulletin of the Odessa National Economic University (ISSN 2313-4569), Odessa National Economics University, Odessa, No. 6(238), pp. 57-68.

Abstract

In the article as a part of dynamic break-even analysis of production the problems of financial stability of investment project and evaluation of investment risks are considered. Scenario method of quantitative analysis of risks of investment project is investigated. For this method authors introduce for the fist time such concepts as dynamic break-even point of probable scenario of the project, absolute and relative reserves of investment break-even of the project according to every probable scenario and their expected values; corresponding formulas are derived. Expected values of reserves of financial stability of investment project may be used for quantitative evaluation of magnitude of its risk as well as traditional risk indicators such as variance, standard deviation, coefficient of variation of project NPV. The higher expected values of reserves of financial stability of investment project are, the lower its financial risk, and vice-versa. Cases of production of homogeneous and heterogeneous products of the project are considered separately in the article.

Keywords

dynamic break-even analysis of the project, scenario method, reserve of investment break-even of the project for his probable scenario, expected values of reserves of financial stability of the project.

JEL classification: R400

UD classification: 336:338.27:658.29

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