Forecasting social, ecological and economic security at meso level

Baldzhy Maryna
Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Odessa National Economic University. E-mail:baldgi@ukr.net

Cite this article:

Baldzhy M., (2019) Forecasting social, ecological and economic security at meso level. Ed.: М.D. Baldzhy (ed.-in-ch.) and others [Systema pensiinoho zabezpechennia Ukrainy ta yevrointehratsiini protsesy; za red.: М. D. Baldzhy (gol. red.)], Scientific Bulletin of the Odessa National Economic University (ISSN 2313-4569), Odessa National Economics University, Odessa, No. 2(265), pp. 29-44.

Abstract

The article considers the theoretical and methodological approaches to the process of social component, predicting environmental and economic security at the meso level. Based on the analysis of existing approaches to forecasting regional security, a method for predicting the social, ecological and economic security of the region has been proposed, which, unlike the existing ones, is aimed at identifying prospects for preventing comprehensive damages from the negative impacts on the social, economic and environmental components of the region activities. For forecasting, the use of individual elements of social, ecological and economic orientation has been proposed, and possible risk factors identified for the level of safety have been determined. The existing classifications of forecasts and methodologies are characterized, which allowed to focus on the selection of situational forecasting, according to which the social, ecological and economic forecast is based on the interference of the behavior of subjects of the region and the model of cause-effect relationships. Refining a number of threshold values of indicators of environmental and economic security for the regions requires long-term monitoring and analysis of a large amount of information. Analysis of the sources allows to outline the basic methodological principles of forecasting the social, ecological and economic security of the region, which should be integrated, that is, with the analysis and consideration of all aspects of the object; systemically – taking into account interconnections and interdependencies; alternatively, with the definition and justification of a number of options for neutralizing or eliminating risks and threats, indicating the possible risk in the implementation of measures to prevent threshold situations. Obviously, to solve the diverse tasks of analysis and assessment of environmental and economic safety, the toolkit must also be universal and flexible, so that in a short time it would be possible to adapt it to new tasks in a rapidly changing external environment of the regions.

Keywords

forecasting, social, ecological and economic security, indicator, region, risk factors, model.

JEL classification: С 530, D 810; DOI: 10.32680/2409-9260-2019-2-265-29-44

UD classification: 332.14

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