Technology of expert methods use in the management process the strategic risks of the grain processing enterprises activity

Kuznetsova Inna
Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Odessa National Economic University. E-mail:inna.stream27@gmail.com

Malutenko Alexander, Kublikova Tatiana
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Odessa National Economic University. E-mail:inna.stream27@gmail.com

Kuznetsova Inna, Malutenko Alexander, Kublikova Tatiana
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Professor, Odessa National Economic University. E-mail:inna.stream27@gmail.com

Cite this article:

Kuznetsova I., Malutenko A., Kublikova T., (2019) Technology of expert methods use in the management process the strategic risks of the grain processing enterprises activity. Ed.: М.D. Baldzhy (ed.-in-ch.) and others [Systema pensiinoho zabezpechennia Ukrainy ta yevrointehratsiini protsesy; za red.: М. D. Baldzhy (gol. red.)], Scientific Bulletin of the Odessa National Economic University (ISSN 2313-4569), Odessa National Economics University, Odessa, No. 5(268), pp. 125-146.

Abstract

A critical analysis of statistical and analytical methods of risk assessment. They found it difficult to use to assess the risk factors of the external environment due to the limited reliable information, its incompleteness and the lack of quantitative measurements of certain information. Proved the greatest acceptability of expert methods for assessing strategic risks. When selecting experts to take into account their awareness, it was proposed to introduce the expert competence coefficient, which consists of two components: the coefficient of the degree of familiarity of the expert with the problem and the coefficient of argumentation. Proved the need to take into account the specifics of the grain processing industry and the behavioral aspects of experts in the sources of arguments for calculating the corresponding coefficient. A survey of leading experts of 24 grain processing enterprises of the industry was carried out and a weighted average rating of each source of argumentation was calculated. On this basis, a scale of assessment of sources of argumentation has been developed, which is the basis for calculating the coefficient of argumentation. This allows you to take into account the awareness of experts during their selection for the evaluation of strategic risk factors of a grain processing enterprise. A procedure has been proposed for assessing the degree of influence of risk factors on an enterprise in two stages, which makes it possible to take into account the nature of the factors and the competence of each expert. A technology has been developed for using expert methods in the process of managing strategic risks in the activities of grain processing enterprises. The technology allows taking into account the specifics of the industry: the determination of the optimal number of experts, the selection of experts, the conduct of expert assessments, the coordination of expert evaluations. The technology of using expert methods to determine the degree of influence of risk factors in the process of managing strategic risks is formalized in the form of an inforogram.

Keywords

strategic risks, risk factors, expert methods, management technology, management process, argument rate, expert competence rate.

JEL classification: D 810

UD classification: 664.7:330

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