Forecasting of transformation level of domestic households savings into investment capital

Hudz Tetiana
Dr. Sc. (Econ.), Prof., Department of Finance and Banking, Poltava University of Economics and Trade, e-mail: gtp9@ukr.net

Cite this article:

Hudz T. Forecasting of transformation level of domestic households savings into investment capital. Scientific Bulletin of the Odessa National Economic University. 2020. № 1-2 (274-275). pp. 105-118.

Abstract

Object of study. The object of the study is the process of transforming household savings into investment capital. One of the most problematic areas is the development of tools for forecasting this process. Methodology. The following methods such as: dialectical approach, induction and deduction, analysis and synthesis, logical approach, vertical and horizontal analysis, trend analysis, correlation-regression analysis, graphical method have been used during the study. Results. The main transformation channels of population temporarily free funds through the banking and nonbanking sectors of the economy have been determined. The overall transformation level of household savings into investment has been calculated. The integrated indicator has become an effective feature in the proposed economicmathematical model of factors’ relationship. Model’s factors are the following: inflation index, level of devaluation (revaluation) of the national currency, market interest rate, household income, degree of financial speculation, profitability of economy real sector. According to the forecast, the transformation level of household savings into investment capital is expected to decrease by one year. Measures to improve the savings and investment processes in the economy of Ukraine have been proposed. Scientific novelty. Methodological tools for macroeconomic forecasting have been developed. The economicmathematical model for forecasting of household savings transformation level into investment capital has been elaborated. The model takes into account some influence of monetary, financial and economic factors of the market environment. Theoretical and (or) practical significance. The obtained results have been suitable for the development of implementation mechanisms of some constructive, purposeful measures of the state and financial intermediaries in order to overcome the negative trends in working with individual investors in Ukraine..

Keywords

savings, households, financial intermediaries, investment capital, financial market, financial instruments, household income.

JEL classification: G100; Q120

УДК: 64.031.4:336.531.2

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