Research of inflation processes in ukraine using mathematical and statistical methods

Shinkarenko Volodymyr
PhD of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Mathematical Methods of Economic Analysis, Odessa National Economic University, Odesa, Ukraine, e-mail: shinkarenko.v.n@gmail.com

Shynkarenko Larysa
PhD of Pedagogical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Management, International Humanities University, Odesa, Ukraine, e-mail: shinkar@te.net.ua

Voropai Natalia
Senior Lecturer of the Department of Mathematical Methods of Economic Analysis, Odessa National Economic University, Odesa, Ukraine, e-mail: natboris@ukr.net

Cite this article:

Shinkarenko V., Shynkarenko L., Voropai N. Research of inflation processes in ukraine using mathematical and statistical methods. Scientific Bulletin of the Odessa National Economic University. 2021. № 3-4 (280-281). pp. 93-99.

Abstract

The aim of the article is to study inflationary processes in Ukraine based on the analysis of the dynamics of the annual consumer price index. Due to the crisis in the economy, the problem of curbing excessive price increases is becoming an important condition for the implementation of socio-economic and monetary policy of the state. The influence of the following macroeconomic indicators on the growth of the consumer price index is studied: the volume of gross domestic product, the exchange rate of the hryvnia against the US dollar, the size of the average wage in Ukraine. The main statistical characteristics of each indicator for the studied period are found. The growth rates of factors are calculated and their graphs are constructed. Using application packages, it is substantiated that the dynamics of the consumer price index is characterized by a random component and cannot be approximated by elementary functions that depend only on time. Using spreadsheets MS EXCEL built a mathematical model in the form of a multiple regression equation. The adequacy of the model was checked using Fisher’s criteria and finding the multiple correlation coefficient, the significance of the parameters according to Student’s criterion. Due to the different sizes of the studied variables, the power function was used, which allowed to consider the growth rates of the traits. Based on the built model, it is proved that the growth of the national currency rate has the greatest impact on the growth of the consumer price index. The results of the study can be used to predict the annual inflation rate for the next period. Also, the regression equation can be used to calculate the hryvnia exchange rate, which will provide the desired level of inflation. The calculation of the consumer price index for 2021 on the basis of the built model showed a statistically reliable result.

Keywords

consumer price index, multiple regression equation, inflation rate.

JEL classification: : E310, C540

УДК: 330.4; 330.5

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