Sensitivity analysis of public finances to the Covid-19 pandemic

Yurchyshena Liudmyla
PhD in Economics., Associate Professor, Associate Professor of Finance and Banking, Vasyl' Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, E-mail: l.yurchishena@donnu.edu.ua, ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5904-0758

Petrenko Yuliia
master's degree in finance, banking and insurance, Donetsk National University Vasyl Stus, Vinnytsia, E-mail:petrenko-i@donnu.edu.ua, ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2693-0762

Cite this article:

Yurchyshena L., Petrenko Y. (2021) Sensitivity analysis of public finances to the Covid-19 pandemic. Ed.: V.V. Kovalenko (ed.-in-ch.) and others [Analiz chutlyvosti publichnykh finansiv do pandemii COVID-19; za red.: V.V. Kovalenko (gol. red.)], Scientific Bulletin of the Odessa National Economic University (ISSN 2313-4569), Odessa National Economics University, Odessa, No. 9-10 (286-287), pp. 43-51.

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to analyze the sensitivity of changes in public finances in Ukraine in the context of Covid-19 and to assess the areas of funding for measures to combat the pandemic. In writing the article, a generalization method was used to analyze the views of scientists on the impact of David-19 on public finances; analytical research methods, such as analysis of time series, indicators of absolute and relative growth rates to identify trends and consequences of the impact of Covid-19 on the GDP of Ukraine, changes in state and local budgets; the TRAMO / SEATS method in the DEMETRA program to adjust GDP for seasonality; graphical method for visual presentation of research results. The study examines the views of foreign and domestic scientists on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on public finances, the behavior and change of government strategy, measures to mitigate the impact of the crisis at both local and national levels. The change of Ukraine's real GDP in dynamics taking into account the seasonal factor is analyzed, the factors that caused its change are determined, in particular, reduction of domestic demand in the country, introduction of quarantine restrictions, shutdown of certain sectors of the economy, reduction of services, closing borders, etc.; the dynamics of revenues and expenditures of the state and local budgets is estimated, the level of sensitivity in the conditions of Covid-19 is revealed, the basic tendencies are outlined; it was found that the degree of sensitivity to the Covid-19 pandemic is higher in local budgets than in the state; the analysis of execution of incomes and expenses of the state budget is carried out, the level of potential losses from their actual non-fulfillment is defined; the directions and level of financing of measures to combat Covid-19 are analyzed. The practical significance of the article is to analyze the sensitivity of public finances, changes in their volume and structure, to determine the factors that led to these changes in the Covid-19.

Keywords

public finances, revenues, expenditures, state budget, local budget, Covid-19.

JEL classification: Е600, Е620, Н720; DOI: 10.32680/2409-9260-2021-9-10-286-287-43-51

UD classification: 336.1

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