Structural imbalances in public finances as threats to financial security of Ukraine

Shkolnyk Inna
Doctor of Economics, Professor of Department of Financial Technologies and Entrepreneurship, Sumy State University, E-mail:y.shkolnyk@rectorat.sumdu.edu.ua, ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5359-0521

Orlov Volodymyr
Ph.D. in Economics, First Deputy Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration, E-mail:ovv0601@gmail.com, ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2052-6654

Cite this article:

Shkolnyk I., Orlov V. (2022) Structural imbalances in public finances as threats to financial security of Ukraine. Ed.: V.V. Kovalenko (ed.-in-ch.) and others [Strukturni dysbalansy v sferi publichnykh finansiv yak zahrozy finansovii bezpetsi derzhavy; za red.: V.V. Kovalenko (gol. red.)], Scientific Bulletin of the Odessa National Economic University (ISSN 2313-4569), Odessa National Economics University, Odessa, No. 5-6 (294-295), pp. 56-63.

Abstract

The current state of Ukraine's public finances, in particular budgets at all levels, plays an important role in ensuring financial security. To ensure the latter, it is important to form a structurally balanced budget in terms of both revenues and expenditures. The purpose of this study is to analyze the state of revenue generation of state, local and consolidated budgets of Ukraine and determine the integrated indicator of structural change. For this purpose the structural-dynamic analysis with calculation of integral coefficients of structural changes of Gatev and Salai is applied. The period from 2015 to 2021 quarterly, in terms of revenues of the state, local and consolidated budgets of Ukraine, was chosen for the study. The paper analyzes in detail the actual structure of revenues in the dynamics and structured; the ratio of budget revenues of all levels to the country's GDP is estimated; the integral coefficients of structural changes of Gatev and Salai are determined. Based on the calculation of integrated indices, it was concluded that there is an unbalanced structure of budget revenues at all levels. Partial imbalances are smoothed out at the consolidated budget level. The dynamics of integrated indicators of revenue generation to state and local budgets are contradictory, which is associated with the process of redistribution of tax revenues in the context of financial decentralization. Thus, the process of generating budget revenues at all levels does not contribute to achieving the required level of financial security of the country. This situation will become more critical in the future under the influence of hostilities in Ukraine. This in turn determines further ways of research. Firstly, conducting a structural and dynamic analysis of budget expenditures at all levels with the definition of integrated coefficients of structural change - Salai and Gatev; secondly, comparison of the received indicators on revenues and expenditures of budgets; thirdly, the calculation of these indicators, taking into account the formation of revenues and expenditures during the war in 2022 and their comparison with the pre-war period.

Keywords

budget, budget revenues, budget security, structural and dynamic analysis, integral coefficients of structural changes.

JEL classification: H500, H560, H610; DOI: 10.32680/2409-9260-2022-5-6-294-295-56-6

UD classification: 336.2

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