Evaluation of money circulation in Ukraine during Covid-19 pandemic and martial law

Kovalenko Victoria
D.Sc. (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of Banking, Odessa National Economic University, E-mail:kovalenko-6868@ukr.net, ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2783-186X

Sergeeva Elena
PhD (Economics), Associate Professor, Odessa National Economic University, Odessa, E-mail:lenasergeeva2007@ukr.net, ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5523-3894

Cite this article:

Kovalenko V., Sergeeva E. (2022) Evaluation of money circulation in Ukraine during Covid-19 pandemic and martial law. Ed.: V.V. Kovalenko (ed.-in-ch.) and others [Ocinka groshovogo obigu Ukrayini v period pandemiyi COVID-19 ta voyennogo stanu; za red.: V.V. Kovalenko (gol. red.)], Scientific Bulletin of the Odessa National Economic University (ISSN 2313-4569), Odessa National Economics University, Odessa, No. 8 (297), pp. 57-64.

Abstract

Introduction. The COVID-19 pandemic and russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 have caused imbalances of the main macroeconomic proportions, and have affected the nature, dynamics and regulations of money circulation. The consequences of these processes were the rapid inflation growth, a significant outflow of personal funds, an increase of dollarization, and a decrease in the purchasing power of the national unit. Purpose. The article focuses on conducting an assessment of the money circulation in Ukraine during the COVID-19 pandemic and martial law, identifying the most significant problems and determining the directions for optimizing the organization of money circulation. Results. Based on the assessment of the money circulation in Ukraine, it has been determined that the economy of Ukraine was in a stable state before russian invasion, what to a large extent affected the positive structure of the money circulation in the country. During the period of the COVID-19 pandemic, the GDP of Ukraine had a tendency to increase and in the period of 2020-2021 grew by UAH 1,265,472 million, but the consequences of the full-scale russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022 had a negative impact on all economic processes. The forecasts for the second half of 2022 show that the rate of economic contraction will be lower, however, in general, real GDP will decrease by more than 30% within the year. It has been determined that high uncertainty due to the invasion makes it difficult to regulate and forecast economic processes with acceptable probability. Conclusions. Optimizing money circulation in Ukraine is one of the priorities of the modern economy, the purpose of which is to ensure the stability of money circulation in the country, and in the case of an unstable economic situation, there is a need to perfectly regulate it. The implementation of the strict monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine will contribute to the achievement of the projected socio-economic goals of the society and is a significant factor in ensuring the stability of the banking system, creating the appropriate basis: price stability and low inflation in the long term.

Keywords

money circulation, macroeconomic indicators, money circulation by the types of “money”, cash and non-cash circulation, monetary aggregates, monetary and credit regulation.

JEL classification: Е100, Е410; DOI: 10.32680/2409-9260-2022-8-297-57-64

UD classification: 336.717.18:336.71

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