Factor analysis of the fiscal significance of tax revenues in conditions of destabilizing factors of economic loss

Onischshenko Hanna
Ph.D. student, Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, Lviv, E-mail: krobinec8@ukr.net, ORCID ID:

Cite this article:

Onischshenko H. (2022) Factor analysis of the fiscal significance of tax revenues in conditions of destabilizing factors of economic loss. Ed.: V.V. Kovalenko (ed.-in-ch.) and others [Faktornyi analiz fiskalnoi znachymosti podatkovykh nadkhodzhen v umovakh destabilizuiuchykh chynnykiv ekonomichnykh vytrat; za red.: V.V. Kovalenko (gol. red.)], Scientific Bulletin of the Odessa National Economic University (ISSN 2313-4569), Odessa National Economics University, Odessa, No. 9-10 (298-299), pp. 87-94.

Abstract

The fiscal significance of tax revenues is determined by their importance in forming the state budget and ensuring that it fulfills its main functions, conducting effective economic and social policy, deepening transformational processes and reforms, and implementing innovations at the sectoral and regional levels. The analysis of the fiscal significance of tax revenues to the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine was carried out in the context of three crisis phenomena that led to an increase in fiscal risks, namely hybrid threats of 2014-2019, challenges and threats of the epidemiological nature of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019- 2021, full-scale war Russia against Ukraine from February 2022. Throughout all periods, the level of the general and budgetary tax burden is critical to the threshold, there is a stable trend of a high level of tax debt, and the general trend of shadowing the economy is negative and dangerous. An assessment of the effectiveness of the tax administration was carried out based on a wellfounded list of indicators. Correctness of implementation of fiscal tools of immediate adaptive response is emphasized. The fiscal policy chosen in these times and the implemented fiscal incentives can be considered fully justified, the promptness of application, the breadth of the list and the quality of which testify to their adaptive nature of response to destabilizing factors in order to ensure fiscal stability, support and recovery of the national economy. Proposals for further improving the efficiency of fiscal policy, fiscal risk management, and tax administration have been provided: 1) the formation of a fiscal risk management; 2) implementation of the new tax reform within the framework of the adopted Decree "On Amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine and other legislative acts of Ukraine regarding the effect of norms during the period of martial law" No. 2120-IX (March 15, 2022); 3) improvement of methodical approaches for expansion of fiscal space, balanced and controlled application of fiscal incentives, improvement of tax administration in order to increase the efficiency of fiscal policy.

Keywords

fiscal policy, fiscal space, tax administration, tax system, taxes, tax revenues.

JEL classification: Н210, Н300, Н610; DOI: 10.32680/2409-9260-2022-9-10-298-299-87-94

UD classification: 336.226

References

1. Statystychnyi zbirnyk: «Biudzhet Ukrainy 2021» Ministerstvo finansiv Ukrainy[Statistical collection: "Budget of Ukraine 2021" Ministry of Finance of Ukraine]. Retrieved from : https:// mof.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian]
2. Valovyi vnutrishnii produkt v Ukraini. Ministerstvo finansiv Ukrainy[Gross domestic product in Ukraine. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine]. Retrieved from : https://index.minfin.com. ua/ua/economy/gdp/ [in Ukrainian]
3. Derzhavnyi borh i harantovanyi derzhavoiu borh. Ministerstvo finansiv Ukrainy[State debt and state-guaranteed debt. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine]. Retrieved from : https://mof.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian]
4. Derzhstat otsinyv padinnia VVP Ukrainy u pershomu kvartali u ponad 15% [The State Statistics Service estimated that the GDP of Ukraine fell by more than 15% in the first quarter]. Retrieved from : https://minfin.com.ua/ua/2022/06/09/86858162/ [in Ukrainian]
5. Spad VVP Ukrainy u travni 2022 roku spovilnyvsia do 35-40% [The decline of Ukraine's GDP in May 2022 slowed to 35-40%]. forinsurer.com. Retrieved from : https://forinsurer.com/ news/22/06/16/41380 [in Ukrainian]
6. Natsbank otsinyv padinnia VVP Ukrainy u druhomu kvartali u 40% [The National Bank estimated the drop in GDP of Ukraine in the second quarter at 40%]. biz.censor.net. Retrieved from : https://biz.censor.net/n3352019 [in Ukrainian]
7. Svitovyi bank prohnozuie rizke padinnia ekonomiky v Ukraini, rosii ta v sviti[The World Bank predicts a sharp decline in the economy in Ukraine, russia and the world]. www.slovoidilo. ua. Retrieved from : https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2022/06/08/novyna/ekonomika/svitovyj-bankprohnozuye-rizke-padinnya-ekonomiky-ukrayini-rosiyi-ta-sviti [in Ukrainian]
8. Moodys prohnozuie padinnia VVP Ukrainy na 35% u 2022 rotsi[Moody's predicts a 35% drop in Ukraine's GDP in 2022]. delo.ua. Retrieved from : https://delo.ua/uk/finance/moody39sprognozuje-padinnya-vvp-ukrayini-na-35-u-2022-roci-398354/ [in Ukrainian]
9. Statystychnyi zbirnyk: «Biudzhet Ukrainy 2019». Ministerstvo finansiv Ukrainy[Statistical collection: "Budget of Ukraine 2019". Ministry of Finance of Ukraine]. Retrieved from : https:// mof.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian]
10. Protiahom sichnia – lypnia 2022 roku do derzhavnoho biudzhetu nadiishlo 418,1 mlrd hryven [During January - July 2022, the state budget received 418.1 billion hryvnias]. tax.gov.ua. Retrieved from : https://tax.gov.ua/media-tsentr/novini/602243.html [in Ukrainian]
11. Zahalni tendentsii tinovoi ekonomiky v Ukraini u sichni-veresni 2021 roku. Ministerstvo ekonomiky Ukrainy[General trends of the shadow economy in Ukraine in January-September 2021. Ministry of Economy of Ukraine]. Retrieved from : https://www.me.gov.ua/ Documents/ Download?id=b1583037-ecbd-462a-a2f1-1c798b588c6d [in Ukrainian]
12. Dynamika podatkovoho borhu. Derzhavna podatkova sluzhba Ukrainy[Dynamics of tax debt. State Tax Service of Ukraine]. tax.gov.ua. Retrieved from : https://tax.gov.ua/diyalnist-/ pokazniki-roboti/dinamika-podatkovogo-borg [in Ukrainian]
13. Minekonomiky rozrobylo metodyku otsinky zbytkiv cherez ruinuvannia pidpryiemstv[The Ministry of Economy has developed a methodology for assessing losses due to the destruction of enterprises]. finclub.net. Retrieved from : https://finclub.net/ua/news/minekonomiky-rozrobylometodyku-otsinky-zbytkiv-cherez-ruinuvannia-pidpryiemstv.html [in Ukrainian]
14. Bohdan, T. Fiskalni pakety borotby z kryzoiu [Fiscal packages to combat the crisis]. Retrieved from : https://zn.ua/ukr/macrolevel/fiskalni-paketi-borotbi-z-krizoju.html [in Ukrainian]
15. RFS zoseredylas na ryzykakh monetarnoho finansuvannia defitsytu derzhbiudzhetu – pidsumky zasidannia RFS 23 chervnia 2022 roku [The RFS focused on the risks of monetary financing of the state budget deficit - results of the meeting of the RFS on June 23, 2022]. bank. gov.ua. Retrieved from : https://bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/rfs-zoseredilas-na-rizikah-monetarnogofinansuvannya-defitsitu-derjbyudjetu [in Ukrainian]
16. Ukraina finansuie vytraty na viinu perevazhno vlasnym koshtom [Ukraine finances the costs of the war mainly with its own funds]. lb.ua. Retrieved from : https://lb.ua/ economics/2022/06/23/521012_ukraina_finansuie_vitrati_viynu.html