Formation of an anticrisis model algorithm for regulating the financial stability of a bank under conditions of uncertainty

Kovalenko Victoria
D.Sc. (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of Banking, Odesa National University of Economics, Odesa, Ukraine, E-mail:kovalenko-6868@ukr.net, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2783-186X

Serhieieva Olena
PhD (Economics), Associate Professor, Department of Banking, Odesa National University of Economics, Odesa, Ukraine, E-mail:lenasergeeva2007@ukr.net, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5523-3894

Rybalka Anna
Master’s student of Faculty of Finance and Banking EP «Management of Banks’ Activity on Financial Market», Odesa National University of Economics, Odesa, Ukraine, E-mail: аserver2003@gmail.com

Cite this article:

Kovalenko V., Serhieieva O., Rybalka A. (2025) Formation of an anticrisis model algorithm for regulating the financial stability of a bank under conditions of uncertainty. Ed.: V.V. Kovalenko (ed.-in-ch.) and others [Formuvannja algorytmu antykryzovoi modeli reguljuvannja finansovoi stijkosti banku v umovah nevyznachenosti; za red.: V.V. Kovalenko (gol. red.)], Scientific Bulletin of the Odesa National Economic University (ISSN 2313-4569), Odesa National Economics University, Odesa, No. 1 (326), pp.23-28.

Abstract

In conditions of increased uncertainty in the operating environment and increased instability due to large-scale military aggression, the development of Ukraine's banking system requires the implementation of new approaches to crisis management. These approaches include proactive risk assessment, contingency planning, and the use of flexible response mechanisms. In the current operating environment, it is necessary to develop a decision-making algorithm based on the assessment of external factors' impact, aligned with the bank's strategic goals and available resources. The main tasks implemented within the framework of the anticrisis model for regulating financial stability are carried out through the sequential execution of the following steps. First, monitoring and assessment of the impact of external factors on financial stability are conducted using strategic analysis tools supplemented by ARDL modeling. The result of this stage is the early identification of key external factors that generate risks of financial stability loss over short- and long-term horizons, as well as the integration of these factors into the decision-making process. In our opinion, the most significant factor is the long-term negative impact of inflation and, as a result, inflation risk on the bank's financial stability. It should be emphasized that the impact of inflation is generally realized through interest rate risk, as it leads to changes in market interest rates and the value of interest-bearing assets and liabilities, as well as through liquidity risk. Anti-crisis regulation of the bank's financial stability, in accordance with the assessment results of the impact of external factors, should include measures aimed at ensuring adaptation to short-term changes in inflation levels and protecting its assets and liabilities from their negative effects. The developed algorithm for the anticrisis regulation model will ensure the bank's flexibility and adaptability to changes in the external environment. This is achieved by identifying the short-term and long-term consequences of external factors affecting financial stability, minimizing crisis potential, and maintaining the target level of stability through strategy revision or activation of preventive and/or reactive tools.

Keywords

bank, financial stability, external factors, anti-crisis management.

JEL classification:G210; M110;DOIhttps://doi.org/10.32680/2409-9260-2025-1-326-23-28

UD classification:336.71:658.012

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