The impact of macroeconomic factors on the functioning of an effective financial monitoring system in Ukraine

Kovalenko Victoria
D. Sc. (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of Banking, Odesa National University of Economics, Odesa, Ukraine, E-mail:kovalenko-6868@ukr.net, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2783-186X

Tarnovetska Anna
student of the first (bachelor's) level of higher education, Faculty of Finance and Banking, Odesa National Economic University, Odesa, Ukraine, E-mail:avoktevc@gmail.com, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-2070-1927

Received: 14.04.2025    Аpproved: 23.04.2025    Рublished online: 12.05.2025

Cite this article:

Kovalenko V., Tarnovetska A. (2025) The impact of macroeconomic factors on the functioning of an effective financial monitoring system in Ukraine. Ed.: V.V. Kovalenko (ed.-in-ch.) and others [Vplyv makroekonomichnyh chynnykiv na efektyvnist funkcionuvannja systemy finansovogo monitoryngu v Ukraini.: V.V. Kovalenko (gol. red.)], Scientific Bulletin of the Odesa National Economic University (ISSN 2313-4569), Odesa National Economics University, Odesa, No. 4 (329), pp.68-74.

Abstract

The article investigates the influence of key macroeconomic factors on the effectiveness of the financial monitoring system (FMS) in Ukraine under conditions of martial law and economic instability. The purpose of the article is to assess the impact of individual macroeconomic factors on the functioning of the financial monitoring system in Ukraine. When writing the scientific article, methods of scientific knowledge were used such as: generalization, comparison, construction of dynamic series and factor analysis. The study focuses on identifying how such indicators as inflation, the National Bank’s discount rate, real GDP, monetary aggregates, public debt, and tax revenues affect the scale and intensity of suspicious financial operations, the number of transactions subject to monitoring, and the analytical materials formed and transmitted to law enforcement agencies. The paper applies Pearson correlation analysis to determine the strength and direction of relationships between macroeconomic indicators and the functional performance of FMS. The findings show a high sensitivity of financial monitoring to inflationary pressure and shifts in monetary and fiscal policy. In particular, a strong inverse correlation was revealed between inflation and the number of reports submitted to the competent authorities, suggesting a decrease in institutional capacity in times of economic stress. Additionally, the increase in monetary aggregates and public debt correlates with a rise in suspicious financial activity, which may be associated with intensified financial flows in a turbulent macroeconomic environment. The study emphasizes that financial monitoring should not be viewed in isolation from the general economic landscape. Its success largely depends on the stability and predictability of macroeconomic conditions, the availability of institutional resources, and the ability of the system to adapt its mechanisms to current risks. The obtained results are of practical value for shaping anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing strategies in Ukraine, especially in periods of financial uncertainty and systemic shock.

Keywords

financial monitoring system, macroeconomic factors, inflation, discount rate, monetary aggregates, suspicious transactions, economic security, GDP, financial and economic uncertainty.

JEL classification:G280; E420; E510;DOI: https://doi.org/10.32680/2409-9260-2025-4-329-68-74

UD classification:343.9.024:336.7]-048.66

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